Russia is Just an Excuse, The Global South Will Pay for Trump’s Tariff War

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During the Republican Party’s nomination for the presidency in 2016, Donald Trump declared, “Anyone who thinks my story is over is mistaken.” Only Trump knows what story he has in mind. But now, as U.S. President, he has imposed a 25% tariff on all Indian imports, effective August 1, 2025. This hardline strategy is part of a broader U.S. effort to shore up its waning dominance in a world where alliances like BRICS (including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and its new members) are accelerating calls for a multipolar global order.Washington’s anxieties have been compounded by growing discussions around “de-dollarization” at BRICS summits and high-profile collaboration among Asian powers India, China, and Russia that increasingly sideline U.S. influence. The move has shocked policymakers in New Delhi, with concerns mounting over its potential to undercut India’s export-led growth and job creation.For context, Trump’s tariff regime is part of a broader global shift: earlier this year, the U.S. dramatically increased tariffs on China—reaching as high as 145% before negotiating a temporary reduction to 30%. These China tariffs are expected to remain in place until fresh agreements are reached by mid-August 2025. India’s exports to the U.S., valued at nearly $79–90 billion, span sectors from technology and pharmaceuticals to automobiles and garments. With the U.S. being one of India’s largest export destinations, the 25% tariff is projected to shave at least 20–40 basis points off India’s GDP growth for the year.Simultaneously, American multinationals like Apple, which have shifted production to India, now face new operational uncertainties. Washington’s explicit goal remains the defense of U.S. “economic sovereignty” in a world increasingly shaped by BRICS and emerging multipolar alliances. Meanwhile, China’s negotiated reduction means Beijing currently faces a less severe U.S. tariff regime (30%) compared to India’s 25% plus additional penalties. This relative advantage weakens India’s competitive edge in global manufacturing chains at least in the short term until, or unless, India can negotiate similar tariff relief. These developments underscore a volatile phase in global commerce, where headline tariffs are no longer just tools of trade, but levers in a wider contest for influence among the world’s largest economies.

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